In a blow to the Republican Party, the already precarious House majority held by the GOP is set to shrink even further after Democrats secured a surprise victory in the final undecided congressional race of the 2024 elections. What this really means is that President-elect Donald Trump will face an even tougher path to advancing his agenda as he returns to the White House next month.
Narrow Path Ahead for Trump's Priorities
The latest projections show Republicans will control 220 seats in the 435-seat House, just a five-seat majority. This leaves them with little room for defections or absences, as they can only afford to lose two votes on any legislation opposed by all Democrats. BBC reports that the slim GOP majority "will give the president-elect significant power to enact his agenda on the economy, immigration and other key issues," but they may still "struggle to secure enough votes for some actions."
Democrats Flip Key Seats, Defy Expectations
The bigger picture here is that Democrats managed to flip a net of nine Republican-held House seats, largely in blue states, while only losing eight of their own, according to NBC News. This includes three pickups in California alone, as well as gains in New York, Oregon, Alabama, and Louisiana. Republicans, meanwhile, were only able to flip seats in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Alaska, Colorado, and Michigan.
As Reuters reports, the election results leave Democrats with "less leverage to challenge policies they disagree with," but the party was still able to defy expectations and limit the GOP's control of the House. This underscores the continued political polarization and unpredictability in the United States.
Implications for Trump's Second Term
The narrower Republican House majority means Trump will have to work harder to get his agenda through Congress, likely requiring more compromise and deal-making with Democrats. The New York Times notes that the "incredible shrinking" GOP majority will give the president-elect "less leverage" and "less room for error" as he seeks to enact his priorities.
This could slow down or complicate Trump's plans for mass deportations, energy deregulation, and tax cut extensions - key policies he campaigned on. The president-elect may need to focus more on areas with bipartisan support, such as border security and defense spending, at least in the near term. Ultimately, the House results are a sobering reality check for Trump as he embarks on his second term, underscoring the political challenges that lie ahead.